Bitcoin’s recent bounce at $25,000 has sparked debate among analysts and influencers about whether it represents a short-term buying opportunity. However, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman argues that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index is not a reliable metric for predicting price movements. According to Pechman, this correlation has only held for 40% of the previous 20 months.
A recent Glassnode report reveals that the amount of Bitcoin changing hands is at its lowest since October 2020. The report cites investors’ “apathy” and “exhaustion” as the reasons behind this trend. Pechman suggests that the relentless actions of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission against Coinbase and Binance may have contributed to this fatigue among bulls. Given the current risk-reward ratio near the $25,000 price level, Pechman disagrees that it presents a buying opportunity.
In another segment of the show, Pechman analyzes the prediction made by Davis Hui, vice president of Bitcoin miner Canaan, that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024. Hui bases this prediction on the halving and the potential approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). However, Pechman questions the validity of Hui’s prediction. He explains that BlackRock’s $10 trillion in assets is largely invested in fixed-income investments and other ETFs, making it unlikely that a significant portion would flow into Bitcoin. Pechman also highlights the risk of current holders selling their positions if Bitcoin’s price were to rise rapidly.
Furthermore, Pechman points out that the dream of a spot Bitcoin ETF has been around for eight years, with no significant progress made. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s concerns about stablecoin trading volumes and unregulated offshore exchanges remain unresolved. Therefore, Pechman suggests that an ETF approval is not a guarantee for Bitcoin’s price surge.
To watch the full episode of The Market Report, visit the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information purposes only and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.
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About the author - J-S Tremblay
I've been involved in the cryptocurrency world since 2016 and trading since 2019. I started Moon and Lambo in 2021. I'm passionate about crypto and love to share my knowledge. I hate bankers and I hope that cryptocurrency will change the financial world for the better. View full profile...
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